Last week, our team attended the GovNet Counter Fraud Conference 2026. With topics of discussion ranging from understanding data to supporting technology use, one theme stood out: the need for fraud-fighting organisations to transition from fraud detection to proactive prevention. But significant barriers to this transition still exist.
The scale of the problem
The event began with a reality check: it is estimated that globally, c. 5% of public sector spend is lost to fraud. For the UK, NAO estimate that the range is between 3% and 8%, or £50bn - £80bn, underpinning that this is a systematic challenge that demands systematic solutions. Against the backdrop of stretched public finances, this level of loss is not sustainable.
There’s no silver bullet, but a clear direction of travel
A recurring theme was the recognition that there is no single solution to countering fraud. The recommended approach was framed as ‘crawl, walk, run, sprint’, explaining that the phased methodology encourages organisations to build their capability progressively rather than attempting to transform overnight. However, the underlying intent was clear: government organisations countering fraud need to move from reactive detection to proactive prevention.
An audit of major government bodies painted a mixed picture. There are genuine pockets of good practice emerging, but they are exactly that – pockets. Consistency is lacking, and the use of existing capabilities remains limited. The opportunity and willingness are there; the challenge is bringing it to fruition at scale.
A case for prevention
Perhaps the most compelling argument of the day was made around the inherent stress and cost of post-fraud management. Detection, investigation, and recovery are resource-intensive and often slow. This all happens, typically, after the damage is already done. The question being asked continuously was: Can we make more insights available before a payment occurs?
The consensus was that prevention is still only an emerging practical discipline, even though we have a clear direction of travel. The shift not only requires new tools, but new thinking about how and when the process of intervention is most effective.
Another factor that makes prevention more achievable is a more joined-up approach across functions. For too long, counter fraud has operated as a largely siloed discipline, but fraud doesn’t respect those boundaries. When intelligence flows freely between functions, risk signals from one part of the organisation’s inform decisions in another, and shared ownership of fraud prevention is genuinely embedded across teams, the effect is significantly greater than any single function could achieve alone.
Data, AI, and a measured approach
There was a pragmatic discussion around the role of data and artificial intelligence. The message wasn’t one of absolute faith, but rather that a measured approach should be taken to AI and data analytics, with privacy controls and governance frameworks central to their sensible deployment. The other major challenge raised was data quality and accessibility, which remain live issues for many organisations.
Where data has been used well, the results speak for themselves. Entity resolution and network analysis have proven particularly effective in surfacing fraud that would otherwise go undetected. Connecting dissimilar data points to build a clearer picture of risk is a capability that is already delivering results for those organisations that have invested in it.
Supporting the right people with the right tools
Another important theme of the event was the people dimension; technology is only ever as effective as the people using it. There was a focus on how staff can be better supported to leverage the tools at their disposal, ensuring that capability is not just built in at a technical level, but embedded in the day-to-day work of those closest to fraud risk.
Which connects us to the broader point: if organisations are serious about prevention, it can’t be the responsibility of a single team or function. Prevention requires an entire system approach, meaning policy, operations, technology and culture need to rally around this shared goal.
Know where you stand and what’s out there
The bottom line was that, for organisations to move forward with confidence, they need to understand what technology is out there, how it’s evolving, and what opportunities exist. With this external evaluation, an internal assessment of your current capabilities and maturity is essential.
Once there is a good understanding of both these aspects, looking to collaborate across government could be one of the most powerful accelerators available. Many challenges organisations face are not unique to them. Pooling intelligence, sharing solutions, and investing jointly into capability brings a scale that no single organisation can match alone.
Where Blackdot helps
Open source intelligence (OSINT) represents an underutilised but genuinely promising avenue in the fight against public sector fraud. The richness of publicly available data – from corporate filings and registry records to social media and online networks - makes it particularly well-suited to mapping the connections and structures that sit behind organised fraudulent activity.
The challenge for government organisations is that OSINT data is, by its nature, fragmented, inconsistently structured and can carry security considerations that make it difficult to work with at scale.
That’s where Blackdot’s Videris is the solution. We unlock the full potential of OSINT by bringing that data together safely and effectively. We’ve helped a number of government organisations use online data to reveal criminal networks and spot hidden insights to prevent fraud. In fact, at Counter Fraud, we held a session with HMRC, exploring what it takes to modernise OSINT processes in public sector authorities, countering fraud and the real-world impact of making these changes.
If enhancing your fraud detection capabilities with OSINT is on your agenda this year, you can book a demo with our team. We’ll walk you through the platform and show you just how Videris can transform public sector OSINT operations.
